And on and on and on...

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Actual Sexual Assault Statistics

The best data we have comes from the Bureau of Justice Statistics.  Rather than showing a 'rape epidemic' they show precisely the opposite.  This holds even more true for campus rape (see further below).

President Obama, announcing a campaign to address campus violence:
 “An estimated one in five women has been sexually assaulted during her college years—one in five.”

The facts are quite different.

"From 1995 to 2010, the estimated annual rate of female
rape or 'sexual assault victimizations' declined 58%, from
5.0 victimizations per 1,000 females age 12 or older to
2.1 per 1,000."

"Sexual assault may or may
not involve force and includes grabbing or fondling.
Sexual assault also includes verbal threats."

A June 19, 2006 story in the Washington Post said: "The number of rapes per capita in the United States has plunged by more than 85 percent since the 1970s, and reported rape fell last year even while other violent offenses increased, according to federal crime data. This seemingly stunning reduction in sexual violence has been so consistent over the past two decades that some experts say they have started to believe it is accurate, even if they cannot fully explain why it is occurring. In 1979, according to a Justice Department estimate based on a wide-ranging public survey, there were 2.8 rapes for every 1,000 people. In 2004, the same survey found that the rate had decreased to 0.4 per thousand."

And that's just since 1995.  Looking back slightly further, and the decline is even more dramatic:
The decline in the forcible rape rate from 1979 to 2009 was over 82%

New DOJ study on college sexual assault says it's not one-in-five, it's one-in-fifty-two

From the Washington Post's review of the claims:

 "The CDC’s figures are wildly at odds with official crime statistics. The FBI found that 84,767 rapes were reported to law enforcement authorities in 2010. The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey, the gold standard in crime research, reports 188,380 rapes and sexual assaults on females and males in 2010. Granted, not all assaults are reported to authorities. But where did the CDC find 13.7 million victims of sexual crimes that the professional criminologists had overlooked?

"It found them by defining sexual violence in impossibly elastic ways and then letting the surveyors, rather than subjects, determine what counted as an assault."

CDC study on sexual violence in the U.S. overstates the problem

In fact, what the study reveals is the devastating impact that careless advocacy research can have on truth...The agency’s figures are wildly at odds with official crime statistics."
Other survey questions were equally ambiguous. Participants were asked if they had ever had sex because someone pressured them by “telling you lies, making promises about the future they knew were untrue?” All affirmative answers were counted as “sexual violence.” Anyone who consented to sex because a suitor wore her or him down by “repeatedly asking” or “showing they were unhappy” was similarly classified as a victim of violence."

From the CDC Questionnaire:

"How many people have ever…

• watched or followed you from a distance, or spied on you with a listening device, camera, or GPS [global positioning system]?
• approached you or showed up in places, such as your home, workplace, or school when you didn’t want them to be there?
• left strange or potentially threatening items for you to find?
• left you unwanted messages? This includes text or voice messages.
• made unwanted phone calls to you? This includes hang-up calls.
• sent you unwanted emails, instant messages, or sent messages through websites like MySpace or Facebook?"

"Have any of your romantic or sexual partners ever…

• told you that you were a loser, a failure, or not good enough? 
• called you names like ugly, fat, crazy, or stupid? 
• insulted, humiliated, or made fun of you in front of others? 
• told you that no one else would want you?"

"Withholding affection" from a woman now counts as assault. So, obviously, does "pressuring" a woman for sex. Therefore, men can't say they want sex, or say that they don't. The feministist have successfully removed all agency from males before the law. The upshot is that if a man says or does anything in relation to sex, or doesn't, he's in legal jeopardy.

From Emily Yoffe’s article in Slate:

"The College Rape Overcorrection"

“The higher education insurance group United Educators did a study of the 262 insurance claims it paid to students between 2006 and 2010 because of campus sexual assault, at a cost to the group of $36 million. The vast majority of the payouts, 72 percent, went to the accused—young men who protested their treatment by universities.”

“Non-student females are victims of violence at rates 1.7 times greater than are college females,” the authors wrote, and this greater victimization holds true for sex crimes: “Even if the definition of violence were limited to sexual assaults, these crimes are more pervasive for young adult women who are not in college.”

"Take the National Crime Victimization Survey, the nationally representative sample conducted by the federal government to find rates of reported and unreported crime. For the years 1995 to 2011, as the University of Colorado Denver’s Rennison explained to me, it found that an estimated 0.8 percent of noncollege females age 18-24 revealed that they were victims of threatened, attempted, or completed rape/sexual assault. Of the college females that age during that same time period, approximately 0.6 percent reported they experienced such attempted or completed crime." 

"We do have hard numbers on actual reports of sexual assault on campus thanks to the Clery Act, the federal law that requires colleges to report their crime rates. But even these figures are controversial. Minuscule sexual assault numbers have long been a consistent feature of Clery Act reporting. Victim advocates say administrators deliberately suppress their numbers in order to make the schools look safer. (Unsurprisingly, schools deny this.) In July, the Washington Post published the Clery number for 2012: There were just over 3,900 forcible sexual offenses, with most schools reporting single or low double-digit numbers. (Under the Clery Act a “forcible sexual offense” does not require the use of actual physical force, it can simply be an act against someone’s will. Offenses include everything from rape to fondling.) Given the approximately 12 million female college students, that’s a reported sexual assault rate of 0.03 percent."

Ms Yoffe's article is well worth reading.  It details the "Star Chamber" character of college rape prosecutions under the Department of Education's Title IX strictures, essentially consisting of unlimited rights for the accuser and none at all for the accused.  Worse: the college may well fabricate false 'evidence' against the accused, even over the objections of the accuser.  This appears to be the real reason colleges want to prosecute such 'crimes' themselves: if they were taken to the police as crimes should be, some justice might be applied.

Quote: "We approached this project objectively and implemented it with as much methodological rigor as possible. This gives us confidence in the results. "
I hope and presume this 'professor' teaches at 'clown college'.
Because a 'web-based survey' promising an Amazon coupon, with a low response rate, and extremely elastic definitions of assault (kissing or fondling, etc) is custom-made to produce the highest-possible assault rate among respondents. Consider just one factor among many: those who actually have been assaulted are far more likely to respond. Then consider those like "UVA Jackie" who want to drive up the numbers for other reasons. Just for starters.
This not only isn't science, it's the opposite of science.

Incidentally, 2590 in a population of 21 million college students is a rate of 0.0012%


100 Most Dangerous American Colleges

Since "Overall, there were more than 3,900 reports of forcible sex offenses on college campuses nationwide in 2012, up 50 percent over three years" (source below), and the present article claims an even sharper increase to 5,000 in 2013, it should at least be admitted in passing that this is the number of alleged offenses. And just as some assaults aren't reported, some reported assaults never happened. It's very hard to know the number of either.

It's worth noting that some of the highest percentages of claims occur at progressive, liberal-arts institutions which leads me to believe that the elastic definitions currently in vogue, as well as heightened consciousness, are part of the story. Otherwise we'd have to believe that places like Grinnell, Reed, Amherst, Hampshire and Swarthmore are far more dangerous for women than, say, USC or UNC-Greensboro.

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), who is studying campus sex assault issues, said she is more concerned about schools with no reported offenses than those with many. She said she wonders whether schools with zero reports are doing enough to encourage students to step forward.


--Mike Conrad



See a chart showing a 58% decline in rape in the general population:

"From 1995 to 2010, the estimated annual rate of female rape or sexual assault victimizations declined 58%, from 5.0 victimizations per 1,000 females age 12 or older to 2.1 per 1,000."

It all could have been so different. See "The Sexual Harassment Quagmire: How To Dig Out"


"The NISVS uses a broader definition of
sexual violence, which specifically mentions incidents
in which the victim was unable to provide consent due
to drug or alcohol use; forced to penetrate another
person; or coerced to engage in sexual contact (including
nonphysical pressure to engage in sex) unwanted sexual
contact (including forcible kissing, fondling, or grabbing);
and noncontact unwanted sexual experiences that do not
involve physical contact."


The great campus rape hoax
Glenn Harlan Reynolds - December 14, 2014
The truth - that rape on campus is becoming less common - doesn't fit the left's narrative.

Americans have been living through an enormously sensationalized college rape hoax, but as the evidence accumulates it's becoming clear that the entire thing was just a bunch of media hype and political opportunism.

No, I'm not talking about the Rolling Stone's lurid and now-exploded fraternity gang-rape story. Whatever the truth behind that story, it's now clear that basically nothing that Rolling Stone reporter Sabrina Rubin Erdely told us happened, actually happened. But the hoax is much bigger than one overwrought and perhaps entirely fictional tale of campus goings-on.

For months we've been told that there's a burgeoning "epidemic" of rape on college campuses, that the system for dealing with campus rape is "broken" and that we need new federal legislation (of course!) to deal with this disaster. Before the Rolling Stone story imploded, Sens. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., were citing the Virginia gang rape as evidence of the problem, but now that the story has been exposed as bogus, they're telling us that, regardless of that isolated incident, there's still a huge campus rape problem that needs to be addressed as soon as possible.

And that's the real college rape hoax. Because the truth is that there's no epidemic outbreak of college rape. In fact, rape on college campuses is — like rape everywhere else in America — plummeting in frequency. And that 1-in-5 college rape number you keep hearing in the press? It's thoroughly bogus, too. (Even the authors of that study say that "We don't think one in five is a nationally representative statistic," because it sampled only two schools.)

Sen, Gillibrand also says that "women are at a greater risk of sexual assault as soon as they step onto a college campus."

The truth — and, since she's a politician, maybe that shouldn't be such a surprise — is exactly the opposite. According to the Justice Department's Bureau of Justice Statistics, the rate of rape and sexual assault is lower for college students (at 6.1 per 1,000) than for non-students (7.6 per 1,000). (Note: not 1 in 5). What's more, between 1997 and 2013, rape against women dropped by about 50%, in keeping with a more general drop in violent crime nationally.
Upshot: Women on campus aren't at more risk for sexual assault, and their risk is nothing like the bogus 1-in-5 statistic bandied about by politicians and activists. So why is this non-crisis getting so much press?

It's getting press because it suits the interests of those pushing the story. For Gillibrand and McCaskill, it's a woman-related story that helps boost their status as female senators. It ties in with the "war on women" theme that Democrats have been boosting since 2012, and will presumably roll out once again in 2016 in support of Hillary Clinton, or perhaps Elizabeth Warren. And University of Virginia President Teresa Sullivan hasn't apologized for her action in suspending all fraternities (and sororities) on the basis of a bogus story in Rolling Stone. Nor has she apologized for the mob mentality on campus that saw arrests, vandalism and protests at a fraternity house based, again, on a single bogus report. Instead, she's doubling down on the narrative.

This kind of hysteria may be ugly, but for campus activists and bureaucrats it's a source of power: If there's a "campus rape crisis," that means that we need new rules, bigger budgets, and expanded power and self-importance for all involved, with the added advantage of letting you call your political opponents (or anyone who threatens funding) "pro rape." If we focus on the truth, however — rapidly declining rape rates already, without any particular "crisis" programs in place — then voters, taxpayers, and university trustees will probably decide to invest resources elsewhere. So for politicians and activists, a phony crisis beats no crisis.

At least until people catch on. As George Washington University law professor John Banzhaf notes, "After a while, the boy who cried wolf wasn't believed, and the women who cry rape may likewise not be believed, especially with the accusations of rape at Duke University and the University of Virginia fresh in people's minds."

Even one rape is too many, of course, on or off of campus. But when activists and politicians try to gin up a phony crisis, public trust is likely to be a major casualty. It's almost as if helping actual rape victims is the last thing on these people's minds.


Glenn Harlan Reynolds, a University of Tennessee law professor, is the author of The New School: How the Information Age Will Save American Education from Itself.

In addition to its own editorials, USA TODAY publishes diverse opinions from outside writers, including our Board of Contributors. To read more columns like this, go to the opinion front page or sign up for the daily opinion email newsletter.

The Rolling Stone fiasco is also a good demonstration of an MSM pattern whereby rapes by black males are ignored while rapes by white males (including and especially fabricated stories) are front-page news.  The actual rape (and murder) of Hannah Graham by Jesse Matthew (which really happened) was ignored or downplayed by most of the media (Google Search shows less than 2% of the mentions that the Rolling Stone hoax received). This despite clear evidence that Matthew was a serial killer and serial rapist.

The actual facts?

 Blacks rape on average 100 white females per day according to Dept. of Justice stats. Lawrence Auster wrote an article for Front Page Magazine a while back in which he walked his readers through the data. He used the year 2005 as an example.

"In the United States in 2005, 37,460 white females were sexually assaulted or raped by a black man, while between zero and ten black females were sexually assaulted or raped by a white man.

"What this means is that every day in the United States, over one hundred white women are raped or sexually assaulted by a black man."

In fact, as the DOJ stats show, black males rape at several times the rate of white males, and most often choose white female victims.

Yet media depictions are almost always of white men doing the raping.

But then, we live in a culture which will happily fabricate and propagate outrageous lies about white-male criminality while some of our largest cities have an explicit policy not to investigate sex crimes by black males.

NYT — New Orleans Police Routinely Ignored Sex Crimes, Report Finds

CNN — Inspector: No sign of investigation in 1,111 New Orleans sex crime-related calls

Likewise, caught up in a mass-media frenzy over the Rolling Stone rape hoax, the US media remained resolutely silent about an actual gang rape by black males in Florida:

What say you?

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